Public debt and economic growth in Arab countries: structural or short-term benefits?
The way public debt affects economic growth in the Arab region is heterogeneous and depends on the country's income level group.
For middle- and high-income Arab countries, public debt helps improve long-term growth with a very limited impact in the short term.
The Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) has published an economic study titled "Public debt and economic growth in Arab countries: structural or short-term benefits?”. This research covers twenty-one Arab countries between 1990 and 2021. It investigates if the public debt improves production capacities and long-term growth in the Arab region or if its effects are limited in the short run.
Key findings reveal that public debt helps improve long-term growth with a very limited impact on the short term. This conclusion is valid mainly for middle—and high-income Arab countries. At the same time, there is no evidence that public debt helps low-income Arab countries improve their economic growth in the short or long term. A common finding for all groups is the lack of efficiency of the Arab countries' public debt in terms of investment, with a much smaller total investment improvement compared to the debt increase.